Russia cuts refined exports, Kirby hints at another SPR release

Yesterday Russia announced an export restriction on “all types of diesel, including summer, winter and Arctic blends, as well as heavy distillates including gasoils, according to the government decree. It came into effect on Sept. 21, but doesn’t have a final date.”

Yahoo’s article included a graph of local Russian fuel prices.

It shouldn’t be surprising that governments are attempting different avenues to reduce gas prices for the general public. In the US, John Kirby, the National Security Council spokesman let slip that the Biden administration could be looking to drain more oil from the SPR.

Above is a weekly chart of the crude futures contract for the past year. You can see we’ve had a really strong run since the end of June. I expect some profit taking here and oil to cool off. If the administration timed the SPR releases right, they could knock the price down a bit here. This should provide a good opportunity to load up on my favorite names… which..

I saw the below floating around on Elon’s social media product.

The offshore sector is getting very tight. Demand is rebounding in a big way (“incremental demand of 10 rigs seems reasonable through 2024”) while supply is not available (“delivery in 4-5 years”). This has all the hallmarks of a sector that is going to go on a run.