Welcome to Groundhogs Day, 1970s version
Is history going to repeat or will it rhyme? It feels like we are falling into the trap of the 1970s. We have high inflation, oil supply issues, and now a declared war in the holy land which seems to have a funny way of coinciding with another one 50 years ago. That one lasted two weeks as peace was negotiated by US National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger. Kissinger said at the time,
“Our position is that ... the conditions that produced this war were clearly intolerable to the Arab nations and that in the process of negotiations it will be necessary to make substantial concessions. The problem will be to relate the Arab concern for the sovereignty over the territories to the Israeli concern for secure boundaries. We believe that the process of negotiations between the parties is an essential component of this.”
That seat is now occupied by Jake Sullivan, who has had close ties with Iran since 2013 and first spoke with Saudi Crown Prince MbS in 2021 about Israeli-Saudi relations. Those relations were supposedly “getting closer”.
What will be really interesting is Russia’s response to all this. Last time around the Soviets supplied Egypt and Syria with supplies. They had “boots on the ground” in Syria and threatened to join in on the Egyptian side if a ceasefire couldn’t be enforced. Could we see a similar reaction this time?
This looks like another double-down attempt to start WW3. It feels like the neocons will do anything to get their war but will this attempt put the Ukraine war on ice as everyone pivots to the middle east? It will certainly have ramifications on oil and the neocons would have known this. That means they are intentionally kicking Europe/Davos while its down. The Saudi’s have already declared that they won’t “forfeit the precautionary approach” to oil production. I’m glad I added to my holdings last week.
Next on the list of ‘70s redux would be an impeachment.
