From here https://www.investing.com/analysis/a-look-at-nyse-margin-debt-and-the-market-200197897 looks as though it is the reduction in margin debt that leads the stock market falls, and not stock falls pushing margin debt down. Thats not to disagree with " As investors face margin calls, they’ll be forced to sell stock to raise cash." just that you could also state that a reduction in margin debt begets a reduction in margin debt. The distinction seems meaningless but usually stocks have a concept of fair value that they won't go below, but a margin debt reduction is a self-reinforcing spiral to zero in the way that stock valuation falls are not, being braked ultimately by fair value.
For timing and anticipating I imagine that day to week margin debt is very noisy so I think Grantham has it, that there is no burst, no bang as such, just that the exuberance begins to gradually slowly fall off on the most risky hopium stocks.
From here https://www.investing.com/analysis/a-look-at-nyse-margin-debt-and-the-market-200197897 looks as though it is the reduction in margin debt that leads the stock market falls, and not stock falls pushing margin debt down. Thats not to disagree with " As investors face margin calls, they’ll be forced to sell stock to raise cash." just that you could also state that a reduction in margin debt begets a reduction in margin debt. The distinction seems meaningless but usually stocks have a concept of fair value that they won't go below, but a margin debt reduction is a self-reinforcing spiral to zero in the way that stock valuation falls are not, being braked ultimately by fair value.
For timing and anticipating I imagine that day to week margin debt is very noisy so I think Grantham has it, that there is no burst, no bang as such, just that the exuberance begins to gradually slowly fall off on the most risky hopium stocks.
As always, a very interesting read thank you.