I made a mistake in my math. The volume of shares TRQ will need to sell is 1,000x more than I originally wrote. Here is the relevant section of the post, updated in bold:
So then what are the odds of the other two? I would put it around 50/50. Looking at TRQ’s most recent financial records, I would guess that they would need to sell around 35M shares to afford their currently liabilities minus their cash on hand and 55M if you don’t subtract the cash. This is a pretty significant amount when compared to their share float of 96.47M. It won’t be easily absorbed by the market since their daily average volume is 1.63M shares.
My conclusion stays the same. At 1%, I’m not heavily invested in the outcome. I believe TRQ is setup for a decade of success, even if RIO exits the merger and they are forced to dilute shares.
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An update on the TRQ post
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I made a mistake in my math. The volume of shares TRQ will need to sell is 1,000x more than I originally wrote. Here is the relevant section of the post, updated in bold:
My conclusion stays the same. At 1%, I’m not heavily invested in the outcome. I believe TRQ is setup for a decade of success, even if RIO exits the merger and they are forced to dilute shares.