Disappointing indeed. I've already seen a lot of permabulls claim they are done raising when clearly they are not. Guess the markets are going to rip up to close the gaps above now before stalling again. Either way Powell got ahead of the other CB's and they will not be able to catch up. I worry more about an inflation relapse now, and gold echoed that concern today.
I got a reply from Dr. Mark Thornton on FRR/CPI a few months ago (https://twitter.com/DrMarkThornton/status/1572242472532676611). He was dismissive of the question. I think that is fair - implying you can't know: price controls don't work. We can probably correlate FRR exceeding CPI as a good idea but there are too many factors to ever simplify a solution to just that.
Disappointing indeed. I've already seen a lot of permabulls claim they are done raising when clearly they are not. Guess the markets are going to rip up to close the gaps above now before stalling again. Either way Powell got ahead of the other CB's and they will not be able to catch up. I worry more about an inflation relapse now, and gold echoed that concern today.
I got a reply from Dr. Mark Thornton on FRR/CPI a few months ago (https://twitter.com/DrMarkThornton/status/1572242472532676611). He was dismissive of the question. I think that is fair - implying you can't know: price controls don't work. We can probably correlate FRR exceeding CPI as a good idea but there are too many factors to ever simplify a solution to just that.