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Matthew's avatar

That is an aggressive drop in margin! If there ends up being enough of a bear market rally to fill the upside gaps on the indices - which isn't too much of a leap, I'm probably going in TQQQ puts.

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Alan Baerlocher's avatar

Beware, today we saw a breakout of the trading range that the indices had be bound to for the past month and buyback season is coming. Expect the market to churn higher until something breaks.

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Dan's avatar

Will you write when you think the time for LEAP puts on major indices might be?

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Alan Baerlocher's avatar

Timing is so difficult. Irrational exuberance can last much longer than most anticipate but I think we are coming up on an important time for the Fed, investors, and the market. August and September are traditionally weak months for the market. I have a small position of LEAP puts but I am way early. Tomorrow the money supply report comes out and I think that it will be able to give us better clarity on how the rest of the year is going to unfold.

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Dan's avatar

Understood. The year curve is ugly and money supply #s are ugly but the market seems to want to head back up, Normally the market makes new highs into raising rates until it doesnt, but when could that be?

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