That economist will be the GOAT. He'll destroy the Fed Put, consign Keynesianism to the ash heap of history, end fractional reserve banking, and make gold and silver great again!
JPow will need to pay him a pretty penny to lure him away from Fox Sports, though.
Instead of a pause, another scenario could be that the Fed goes right from rate hikes into rate cuts. It seems far fetched, but there's a non-zero chance.
You have a good point. As an investor you have to put probabilities on all possible outcomes and then invest accordingly. Like you said, there would be a non-zero chance of a hard pivot. I have a hard time giving very high odds to that playing out with the shadow of Arthur Burns hanging over those currently in the Fed. I think the odds are higher that, if the credit markets were to seize up, they would be very slow to react as they would worry about reigniting the inflation inferno.
Hee, hee! At least he has deflation experience!
That economist will be the GOAT. He'll destroy the Fed Put, consign Keynesianism to the ash heap of history, end fractional reserve banking, and make gold and silver great again!
JPow will need to pay him a pretty penny to lure him away from Fox Sports, though.
Instead of a pause, another scenario could be that the Fed goes right from rate hikes into rate cuts. It seems far fetched, but there's a non-zero chance.
You have a good point. As an investor you have to put probabilities on all possible outcomes and then invest accordingly. Like you said, there would be a non-zero chance of a hard pivot. I have a hard time giving very high odds to that playing out with the shadow of Arthur Burns hanging over those currently in the Fed. I think the odds are higher that, if the credit markets were to seize up, they would be very slow to react as they would worry about reigniting the inflation inferno.