Why does the market pain occur or continue to occur after the Fed pivot? What is the dynamic? Do you think it has to do with the lag between the Fed's actions to slow money supply growth and when the resultings actually start affecting the capital structure?
I think you and Dan have it pegged. All actions from the Fed operate on a delayed basis. It takes time for the interest rate increases to begin to change the broader economy. The same works in reverse. When they open up the money spigot, it takes time to work it's way through the system to prop it back up.
Isnt the pivot always 6 months to 1 year behind due to the money moving through the system lag? This would explain the fall after the pivots
You've got it. No action from the Fed has an immediate impact.
Alan, any thoughts on the CLR purchase by Hamm? Is it expected to go through?
Tender offers are due on on Monday. Is it better to not respond and see what happens?
Edit: Just found an old response you provided on this, where you mention Hamm owns 83% of the shares. If so, it is sure to pass.
Alan
Why does the market pain occur or continue to occur after the Fed pivot? What is the dynamic? Do you think it has to do with the lag between the Fed's actions to slow money supply growth and when the resultings actually start affecting the capital structure?
I think you and Dan have it pegged. All actions from the Fed operate on a delayed basis. It takes time for the interest rate increases to begin to change the broader economy. The same works in reverse. When they open up the money spigot, it takes time to work it's way through the system to prop it back up.
Copy all. Thanks!
Great write up and very interesting chart