My gut feeling is that SVB is not The Big One. Financial conditions are still too loose. I still don't think the economy has fully digested all of the helicopter money/Trumpbuxx from 2020; this is why the Fed needs to suck about $2.4 trillion out of the economy (in the form of reverse repos) just to maintain a lower bound of 4.55% on interest rates.
My best speculation is that the Fed is going to keep tightening until the economy is done burning off this excess of supply (Milton Friedman's "fool in the shower" metaphor). When the markets finally hit the wall, the crash is going to be absolutely spectacular.
My gut feeling is that SVB is not The Big One. Financial conditions are still too loose. I still don't think the economy has fully digested all of the helicopter money/Trumpbuxx from 2020; this is why the Fed needs to suck about $2.4 trillion out of the economy (in the form of reverse repos) just to maintain a lower bound of 4.55% on interest rates.
My best speculation is that the Fed is going to keep tightening until the economy is done burning off this excess of supply (Milton Friedman's "fool in the shower" metaphor). When the markets finally hit the wall, the crash is going to be absolutely spectacular.